Idalia remained a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea as of Monday afternoon Eastern time, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The tropical storm had sustained winds of 70 miles per hour. Idalia is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will most likely strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall in Florida early Wednesday. Follow our coverage here.
Tropical-storm-force winds typically arrive as weather conditions begin to deteriorate, and experts say their estimated arrival time is a good deadline for completing storm preparations and evacuating if asked to do so.
Arrival times and likelihood of damaging winds
Idalia is the ninth named storm to form in the Atlantic in 2023.
In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that there would be 12 to 17 named storms this year, a “near-normal” amount. On Aug. 10, NOAA officials revised their estimate upward, to 14 to 21 storms.
There were 14 named storms last year, after two extremely busy Atlantic hurricane seasons in which forecasters ran out of names and had to resort to backup lists. (A record 30 named storms formed in 2020.)
This year features an El Niño pattern, which arrived in June. The intermittent climate phenomenon can have wide-ranging effects on weather around the world, and it typically impedes the formation of Atlantic hurricanes.
In the Atlantic, El Niño increases the amount of wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction from the ocean or land surface into the atmosphere. Hurricanes need a calm environment to form, and the instability caused by increased wind shear makes those conditions less likely. (El Niño has the opposite effect in the Pacific, reducing the amount of wind shear.)
At the same time, this year’s heightened sea surface temperatures pose a number of threats, including the ability to supercharge storms.
Sources and notes
Tracking map Source: National Hurricane Center | Notes: Map shows probabilities of at least five percent. The forecast includes the five days beginning three hours before the storm’s latest reported time and location.
Arrivals table Sources: New York Times analysis of National Hurricane Center data (arrival times); U.S. Census Bureau and Natural Earth (geographic locations); Google (time zones) | Notes: The table shows predicted arrival times of tropical-storm-force winds at selected cities if there is a chance such winds could reach those locations. “Earliest possible” times are times when, if tropical-storm-force winds do arrive, there is at least a 10 percent chance they will arrive at the time shown. “Most likely” times are times when, if tropical-storm-force winds do arrive, there is an equal chance that such winds will arrive before and after the time shown.
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August 29, 2023 at 01:01AM
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Tropical Storm Idalia Tracker: Map and Arrival Times - The New York Times
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