The Nevada basketball team plays San Diego State in a Mountain West Tournament semifinal Friday in Las Vegas. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Nevada (16-9) vs. San Diego State (21-4)
When: Friday, 6:30 p.m.
Where: Thomas & Mack Center (18,500 capacity; no fans allowed)
TV: CBS Sports Network
Radio: 94.5 FM
Betting line: San Diego State by 8; total of 139
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Defend without fouling: Nevada’s defense has taken a step back since its COVID-19 pause, and one area that’s obvious is the team’s propensity to foul. In its last five games, the Wolf Pack’s opponent has averaged 29 free throw attempts. That’s a lot of freebies, and SDSU knocks those down at a decent rate (72.6 percent from the line, 113th in the nation). The Wolf Pack fouls on 28.2 percent of its defensive possessions, the 20th-highest mark out of 357 D-I teams. The Aztecs aren’t elite at getting to the free throw line, but that was a big key in their sweep of Nevada in the regular season. SDSU made 35-of-42 free throws in the wins to Nevada’s 23-of-28. That’s a plus-12 advantage for the Aztecs, which won those two games by a combined seven points (five in the first game; two in the second). The free throw line was the difference in regular season, and Nevada can’t allow that to be the case in the postseason.
2. Win the center battle: SDSU was nearly upset by Wyoming in the quarterfinal, and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out why that game was close. The Aztecs got just nine points on 1-of-6 shooting from Matt Mitchell and Nathan Mensah, who average 24.2 points per game. SDSU was fortunate to escape with two of its best players having poor offensive nights. It’s probably safe to pencil Mitchell in for a bounce-back effort. His eight-point game against Wyoming was only the third time this season he was held in single-digits. The more interesting matchup for me is Nevada’s centers against the 6-foot-10 Mensah, who is an inconsistent offensive player but always great on defense. Mensah had 10 games of five points or less this season and nine with 11 or more. He clearly outplayed Nevada’s centers in the regular season with a 16-point, seven-rebound game and 15-point, six-rebound game. Mensah is SDSU’s defensive anchor but also a big X factor offensively. The Aztecs are 11-1 this season when he scores at least nine points. Nevada’s centers have played well of late and need a good effort against SDSU.
3. Get a lift from the role players: Nevada’s top-three scorers in the win over Boise State – Desmond Cambridge Jr., Grant Sherfield and Warren Washington – combined for 75 points. You won’t lose many games when your stars play like that. But you also can’t bank on performances like that every game. Those three averaged 42 points per game in the two regular-season matchups with SDSU, which has an elite defense and will game plan to slow down Cambridge and Sherfield, in particular. Nevada needs an offensive lift from its role players, guys like Tre Coleman, Kane Milling, K.J. Hymes, Daniel Foster and Robby Robinson, who should see increased playing time in this game because of his ability to defend Mitchell. If Nevada’s non-star players (the guys outside of Cambridge, Sherfield and Washington) chip in 30-plus points, that puts the Wolf Pack in a good position. They combined for just 14 points against Boise State, but the stars played like stars. SDSU will make things difficult on those stars in this game.
Prediction
Nevada 71, San Diego State 69: Nevada played a wounded dog in the MW Tournament quarterfinals, with Boise State limping in off three straight losses while playing without its second-best player in Abu Kigab (shoulder). That’s not going to be the case against SDSU, which has won 12 straight games, although three of the last four have come by four points or fewer/overtime. The point being: SDSU remains a beast, and Nevada must be more physical against the Aztecs than they were against the Broncos (without fouling, of course). While the Wolf Pack defense is a concern, its offense is playing at a high level. SDSU is going to slow that unit down to a degree, but I'll take Nevada to spring its third straight upset. Grant Sherfield hits the game-winner in the final10 seconds to send the Wolf Pack to the program's second MW Tournament championship game. Season record: 19-6
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
"and" - Google News
March 13, 2021 at 12:00AM
https://ift.tt/3rJEbXf
Nevada vs. San Diego State: Three keys to victory and a prediction - Nevada Sports Net
"and" - Google News
https://ift.tt/35sHtDV
https://ift.tt/2ycZSIP
And
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Nevada vs. San Diego State: Three keys to victory and a prediction - Nevada Sports Net"
Post a Comment