When last season concluded, the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees were 1-2-3 in payroll for luxury-tax purposes.
As they wrap up their holiday shopping, the Mets currently project as the runaway leader in 2023 payroll followed by the Yankees. The Dodgers — quiet by mega-organization status — are leaning toward dropping under the lowest tax threshold of $233 million.
But even if they stay in that lane, the Dodgers’ aim would be to reset their penalties going forward, not rebuild. If Los Angeles could get to $232,999,999 and stop, it would. In other words, the Dodgers are still focusing on winning tactically if not to every penny financially.
One reason the Dodgers believe they can live in both worlds — chase a title and sink below the first tax threshold — is that they have talented, minimum-salary-ish young position players ready for prominent roles. By the way, so do the Mets and Yankees. It is a reminder that you just can’t buy your way out of every shortcoming, even with Cohen’s checkbook.
These three behemoths, between payroll and tax, will spend more than $1 billion in 2023 payroll collectively. Yet, each needs its talented, seemingly MLB-ready youngsters to excel instantly to be their best.
The model?
After the 2021 season, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar and Juan Yepez played for the Glendale Desert Dogs in the Arizona Fall League. They combined in 2022 for 1,402 plate appearances and a .760 OPS to help the Cardinals win the NL Central — with the versatile Donovan finishing third in the Rookie of the Year vote while winning a Gold Glove.
For the Astros, Jeremy Pena replaced Carlos Correa, performed on par with Correa during the regular season to finish fifth for the AL Rookie of the Year while also winning a Gold Glove at short. He then won the ALCS and World Series MVP for the champion Astros.
Can the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers enjoy that level of prospect performance to maximize their 2023 arc?
Mets
The Mets need to add one more bat, unless they don’t because particularly Francisco Alvarez and maybe Brett Baty are ready for impact now — with Mark Vientos and possibly later in the season Ronny Mauricio also potential factors.
The Mets’ late-week signing of Omar Narvaez positions them to carry Alvarez as a third catcher/DH to begin 2023. James McCann is the odd man out. This is not like the Braves trading for Sean Murphy and having such attractive catchers in William Contreras and Manny Pina that they had value in being moved elsewhere. McCann has two years at $24 million left, and one non-Mets executive said, “At the winter meetings, they were in a full-court press trying to trade McCann. They are willing to eat a big chunk of his salary.”
Since that has not occurred yet and the Mets nevertheless went ahead and signed Narvaez, they either find a taker for McCann or have to release him. In the latter scenario, between Cano and McCann, the Mets would have $30 million-ish in dead money and add tax on top of that for both players. But the sport should brace for this trend. The way teams are giving players contracts deep into their 30s and early 40s again, they are basically deferring money to the future when they will have to decide whether to release a declining player.
The Mets are willing to pay the price to form a strong left/right defensive-oriented platoon with Narvaez/Nido. Alvarez can work in once or twice a week as a catcher and several times a week as a DH. He is MLB.com’s No. 1 prospect because of his bat, and if he brings an .800-plus OPS immediately, it just changes the Mets’ need to find another outside bat.
Yankees
With the signing of Carlos Rodon, the Yankees project to be just under the top tax threshold of $293 million. They still have to figure out left field, now that No. 1 choice Andrew Benintendi has signed with the White Sox.
They might have to move a player or lower payroll elsewhere to do so.
It is possible with Rodon joining Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino, that the Yankees could deal Frankie Montas. But their next line of starters is Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt, then uncertainty.
Thus, moving Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa becomes more probable. Either or both would open middle-infield opportunities for Oswaldo Carbera, Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe (MLB.com’s No. 5 prospect). With the removal of extreme shifts, there will be a greater need for rangy middle infielders. This trio should help there. Also, reduction in pickoff moves plus larger bases are expected to enhance stolen bases in 2023, another area this threesome could be a factor.
Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference version) liked Torres (4.1) and Kiner-Falefa (3.0) while Cabrera amassed 1.9 in his cameo. That is a 9.8 total. Can a full season of Cabrera plus Peraza and Volpe match that for about minimum salary all around — the kind of outlay that makes it more palatable for Hal Steinbrenner to have invested long term with Aaron Judge and Rodon?
Dodgers
The Dodgers have been steadily disassembling a nucleus that has dominated the NL West. Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez, and last offseason Corey Seager, left. Now Cody Bellinger is out the door with Justin Turner expected to follow. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman expensively fill in some of the blanks. But the Dodgers’ fertile farm has given them Will Smith and Gavin Lux.
Now, there could be a major overhaul. James Outman is the likely center fielder. Max Muncy is probably going to play third base regularly, but his maneuverability will allow Los Angeles’ most advanced hitting prospect Miguel Vargas to grab regular playing time there and elsewhere. And Michael Busch fits the versatile mode of Taylor, Hernandez, Muncy and Lux that the Dodgers seek and maximize.
Before the season is done, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot and Gavin Stone (all top 80 prospects via MLB.com) will probably be asked to help with the rotation.
The Dodgers have been navigating a financial mystery. They are expected to learn next month how much (if any) an arbitrator decides to rescind Trevor Bauer’s two-year suspension. If, for example, the arbitrator rules that Bauer is reinstated for 2023, then even if the Dodgers, as expected, release the pitcher, they would still be obligated for $34 million-ish toward the tax payroll and would probably not be able to reset. But if the suspension holds, then using all the young players would allow the Dodgers to stay under, as long as the youngsters perform well enough to keep Los Angeles a high-level contender.
And if that occurs, the Dodgers will be well positioned with a reset tax to be uber-aggressive on what will be the story that will hover above the coming season: Where exactly will the bidding go next offseason for Shohei Ohtani?
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Big-spending Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, can still save with young prospects - New York Post
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