It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future...and even more especially about the future of SpaceX.
Forecasting what SpaceX would do in 2022, I got a lot right -- and a lot wrong. Right: In 2022, SpaceX did in fact launch two crewed missions sending NASA astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) and launched two commercial resupply missions to ISS as well. Also right: SpaceX launched the first commercial astronaut mission for space company Axiom -- Ax-1.
And wrong: The follow-up mission to Ax-1, Ax-2, did not take place in 2022. I also drastically underestimated the number of times SpaceX would launch Starlink satellites to orbit. Instead of the dozen or so missions expected, SpaceX launched Starlink satellites no fewer than 34 separate times last year. In fact, Starlink launches comprised the majority of SpaceX's 61 total launches in 2022. As SpaceX pointed out, this worked out to more than one launch per week last year -- a record no other space company has come close to matching:
On average, SpaceX launched every 6 days from one of our three sites with 92% of missions completed with flight-proven first stage rocket boosters, and Falcon 9 now holds the world record for most launches of a single vehicle type in a single year
-- SpaceX (@SpaceX) December 30, 2022
SpaceX also just missed expectations for launching smallsat Transporter missions four times in 2022. Instead, it launched those three times in the year. (SpaceX wasted no time fixing that oversight, however. On Jan. 3, 2023, Transporter-6 blasted off from Cape Canaveral carrying 114 satellites to orbit in SpaceX's inaugural launch of 2023.)
Image source: Getty Images.
Mission un-accomplished
Probably the year's biggest disappointment was that in 2022, SpaceX abruptly shut down all test launches of its Starship megarocket.
After running multiple low-altitude test flights throughout early 2021, culminating in a successful landing in May, its been mostly crickets out of Boca Chica ever since. There were a few engine tests and multiple efforts to clad Starship in heat-shield tiles but not a single test launch all throughout 2022, much less the expected orbital test flight culminating in a dramatic splashdown at sea.
But there's always next year, right?
What happens next
And now here we are, and it is "next year" -- 2023. So what can we predict for SpaceX in 2023?
Let's start out with a nice round number: 100 space launches this year, or 64% more than last year.
Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year
-- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 31, 2022
As in 2022, most of these launches will probably involve Falcon 9 rockets carrying Starling satellites -- and for one simple reason: SpaceX aims to have Starlink provide the bulk of its revenues and its profits eventually.
Before that can happen, though, the company needs to fill out its complement of at least 12,000 satellites initially and then 7,500 more at a later date. With fewer than 3,400 functioning Starlink satellites in orbit today, however, SpaceX needs to put a lot more birds in the sky. Accordingly, you can probably expect 70 or more Starlink flights this year, or roughly 1.5 per week.
Starlink won't be SpaceX's only satellite customer, either. In January alone, the company is slated to launch satellites for rival satellite companies, ViaSat, Maxar, and OneWeb, as well as for the U.S. Space Force. Later, in March, SpaceX will send up 10 Tranche 0 missile-warning satellites, the beginnings of a 144-satellite constellation being built for the Space Force's Space Development Agency.
In addition, you can expect SpaceX to launch three resupply missions to the International Space Station (CRS-27, -28, and -29) and two crewed missions to ISS (Crew-6 in February and Crew-7 in September). Meanwhile, in the field of private spaceflight, March should see the launch of the ballyhooed Polaris Dawn mission, which will feature the world's first-ever, out-of-spacecraft spacewalk by private astronauts and may even include a volunteer visit to service the Hubble Space Telescope.
Two months later, SpaceX will launch the long-awaited Ax-2 mission to ISS in May.
But what about Starship?
Note that at this point, the year will still be less than half over, and it will already have been a pretty busy five months. With so much going on, it's hard to imagine where SpaceX will find time to squeeze in an orbital test flight for its Starship megarocket. But after waiting two years since SN15 stuck its landing, you have to figure that Elon Musk will be itching to prove his fully reusable spacecraft can fly.
Consider that even if SpaceX launches 70 Falcon 9 missions carrying nothing but Starlink satellites this year, the most it could hope to achieve by year-end is getting 7,600 satellites in orbit -- fewer than 40% of what the Federal Communications Commission has authorized it to launch. Filling out the entire authorized number would require nearly 200 more flights in 2024 and beyond if SpaceX is limited to launching them 60 at a time in Falcon 9s.
The faster Starship gets orbital-flight-proven, the faster SpaceX can make progress toward completing its Starlink constellation. And the faster that happens, the sooner SpaceX can start earning a profit for its investors.
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SpaceX Ended 2022 With a Bang, and 2023 Could Be Even Bigger - The Motley Fool
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