While we discussed on Monday where a stretched-out Michael Kopech can go from here, James Fegan posted a story on Sunday about Kopech got here, transforming from a triple-digit flame-thrower to somebody who looks extraordinary while throwing a more normal kind of velocity.
There is a mechanical change to something simpler and more repeatable, as is the custom in recent stories of overhauls …
The small step-back motion Kopech had in the modified windup in his only spring outing in March 2020 was understandably forgotten when baseball shut down a couple of days later. But that muted action, paired with a scoreless inning replete with curveballs thrown for strikes and peppering the top of the zone with high fastballs, represented a culmination of a lot of what Teaford and Zaleski had been pushing toward. And the first move was getting Kopech toward the first-base side of the pitching rubber and shrinking the size of his step back, making him less inclined to push himself too far toward third base and crossfire his way to the plate, and to think more in terms of working straight toward the mitt. It’s not like he needed a big windup anyway.
“He’s so strong and powerful that he doesn’t need a bunch of momentum,” Teaford said. “With the way his foot would kind of shift on the rubber at times, not intentionally, that kind of threw off his upper body because then his perception was getting off, and his feel of where he needed to be out front with his hand was inconsistent.”
From there, Everett Teaford and Matt Zaleski got Kopech to worry about where he placed that riding fastball vertically, rather than horizontally. As we’re seeing so far, Kopech doesn”t have to worry about being over the plate if he’s above their belts, because hitters aren’t responding fast enough to barrel it up.
Speaking of which, David Adler at MLB.com took his own turn at how Kopech has improved, and he zeroed in on the fastball movement.
What’s just as important is that he spins the ball efficiently. Kopech has an active spin percentage of 96% on his fastball. That means nearly all of the spin on his four-seamer contributes to the actual movement on the pitch.
Kopech’s fastball only drops 11 inches from his hand to the plate. That gives him about two inches of “rise” above average. His fastball also gets about 12 inches of arm-side run — nearly four inches above average in horizontal break.
In other words: the efficient spin is actually making Kopech’s fastball carry through the strike zone, which is what makes it a swing-and-miss fastball, especially when Kopech elevates, which he does well over half the time. With his combination of stuff and the way he attacks, hitters are whiffing on over a third of their swings against Kopech’s four-seamer, giving him one of the highest fastball swing-and-miss rates in the league.
PERTINENT: If Michael Kopech isn’t in the White Sox rotation now, then when?
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Over at FanGraphs, Kevin Goldstein gave Nick Madrigal’s unique skill set a good, long look. We’re well aware of the challenges Madrigal faces taking his offensive skill set to a new level, because it’s tough to see walks and extra bases coming in bunches for him.
What’s new to the discussion is Goldstein’s introduction of Early Action Percentage, which is the combination of walk and strikeout rates. Madrigal’s doesn’t even round up to double digits — 8.8 percent — and he on only has one true challenger in Pittsburgh’s Kevin Newman (9.8 percent), with David Fletcher on the podium but well out of the conversation (13.8 percentage).
Goldstein looks at the chances of Madrigal improving the other components of his OPS and sees an uphill climb due to his 20 power, and the idea that his walk rate would have double.
But Madrigal is so weird that even characterizing his approach as “early action” seems like a misnomer, because while he’s neither walking nor striking out, he’s very comfortable hitting outside of shallow counts, as Jason Benetti’s “Nicky Two Strikes” tag indicates. He also seems harder to try to liken to a Tony Gwynn, because while Gwynn batted .338 during a time where Major League Baseball hit .250-260, Madrigal’s has a .327 lifetime average when the league is hitting .240. (And Madrigal’s a .338 lifetime hitter with two strikes alone.)
Back in late January, I’d mentioned that Madrigal’s struggles in the field and on the basepaths knocked down his value to a group of second basemen who didn’t thrill the market and needed months to find new homes this winter. But if Madrigal’s able to shore up those areas — and he’s off to a better start in both facets this year — his hit tool could be so off-the-charts that weighted analytics and other catch-all stats will fall short in stacking him up to the rest of the league.
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The White Sox have had enough pleasant developments that it’s hard to give all of them proper consideration, so we haven’t gotten around to talking about Luis Robert’s eminently professional start to his 2021. He’s hitting .305/.356/.463 thus far, and unlike his hot start last year, it doesn’t feel as though he’s masking any particularly inflammable imbalances.
If you’ve watched the White Sox regularly this year, you’ve seen Robert get a better handle on the strike zone. He had one of my favorite plate appearances of his career on Saturday, when he heroically drew four balls after falling into an 0-2 count against Kyle Gibson.
It reminded me of the old spy movie trope about the protagonist who’s injected with sodium pentothal in order to spill vital secrets. Gibson lured Robert into the helpless state we saw so many times his rookie year, but against all odds, the tried-and-true method stopped working. While you could see parts of Robert’s physiology willing to give the enemy what it wanted, he summoned the fortitude to prevail.
In this case, it was just a walk, and a walk where Robert might’ve been bailed out by the first-base umpire.
Still, progress! And what’s more, it loaded the bases to set up the #WILDPITCHOFFENSE that accounted for the first of the two Chicago runs.
It was remiss of me to omit it in the recap, but after making so many headlines for his deafening homers and jaw-dropping defense last year, Robert’s enjoying a subtler sort of success this year, and it’s getting overshadowed by new breakouts who are earning their own burgers.
Fortunately, David Adler at MLB.com has done a lot of the work in summing it up. Robert has indeed improved at putting the bat to the ball, so much so that he leads all of baseball with the largest increase in in-zone contact.
Largest increase in in-zone contact rate, 2020-21
Among 193 qualifying hitters
1) Luis Robert (CWS): +14.5 points (68.3% to 82.8%)
2) Omar Narvaez (MIL): +13.2 points (77.2% to 90.4%)
3) Nicky Lopez (KC): +12.4 points (82.4% to 94.8%)
4) Gregory Polanco (PIT): +12.3 points (66.8% to 79.1%)
5) Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL): +10.7 points (73.7% to 84.4%)
That improvement is a well-rounded one. He’s slashed his swing-and-miss rate on the three varieties of pitches (fastball, offspeed, breaking), and the quality of contact is resulting in big jumps in expected batting average across the board.
The only thing that has yet to really materialize is the power, but based on the regularity of quality at-bats, it only seems like a matter of time before the ball starts leaving the yard. I’ll write about him by then, I promise.
(Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)
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