The ESPN fantasy and betting cheat sheet is your pregame destination for our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
Melton's Moment: The Grizzlies seem intent on resting several key starters for tonight's matchup with the conference-leading Suns. Ja Morant remains sidelined by a knee injury, while Steven Adams, Desmond Bane, Tyus Jones, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are all listed as doubtful. Fantasy managers can turn to Dillon Brooks (66%), who has scored at least 19 points in five straight outings. Don't overlook De'Anthony Melton (82%), either, as he's averaged 19.8 points and a whopping five 3-pointers over his past six games. Melton has posted these efficient lines in just 22.6 minutes per game and his spike in playing time signals an even higher ceiling for tonight.
Gravitate Toward Gafford: Daniel Gafford (85% available and just $3,600 on DraftKings) is always an intriguing option in the right spot and we could well see him come through in a big way tonight. The hope is that Gafford, the NBA's leader in games with at least 3 blocks and 3 offensive rebounds in under 30 minutes, gets extended run against a below average rebounding Mavericks team. He hung 14 points and 10 rebounds on these Mav was back in November, but in only 27 minutes. Gafford's ceiling isn't too high, but a double-double with multiple blocks is well within the range of outcomes. Given how little you have to invest (a free agent pickup or a punt DFS play), he's worth a look on a slate packed with high-end options.
KCP in DC: It always helps to identify surging players, especially as many fantasy hoops leagues are deep into the playoffs. With Kyle Kuzma ruled out for tonight's matchup, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (80%) should benefit in his absence. KCP has scored at least 20 points in three straight games and recorded at least one steal in each of his last five games.
Theo Thunder: Oklahoma City will essentially be without their entire starting lineup for tonight's game against the visiting Pistons. Tre Mann has been ruled out, leaving guard Theo Maledon (96%) to run the offense. Maledon has averaged 21.5 points and 11 combined rebounds and assists to go with strong shooting results during his last four games, the last three of them starts. Adding Aleksej Pokusevski could also prove rewarding, as the second-year forward has produced 24 points, 12 boards and 19 dimes over his last two games.
Royal Values: One of the best games of the slate for fantasy fun might just be the Kings playing the Rockets in Houston. This contest sports a small spread and a healthy total, suggesting a competitive, high-scoring affair could ensue. Davion Mitchell (63% available) is an obvious target for fantasy managers in both redraft and DFS play given he's scored at least 21 points in five straight, including 24 against the Rockets a few days ago. Mitchell has also regularly surpassed his assist prop line since taking over the offense in the wake of injuries to Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox. It's not just Mitchell shining for Sacramento, as center Damian Jones is a free agent in 98% of leagues despite producing 24 points, 14 combined boards and dimes, and four blocks against Houston this past Wednesday.
Game of the Night
Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET, FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
Line: Suns (-7.0)
Moneyline: Suns (-340), Grizzlies (+270)
Total: 229.0 points
BPI Projected Total: 219 points
BPI Win%: Suns (64.5%)
Key players ruled out: Ja Morant
Doubtful: Tyus Jones, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Steven Adams
Notable: Unders are 5-1-1 in Memphis' past seven games (they are 5-2 ATS over that stretch).
Fantasy Streamer: Brandon Clarke (58.6% available) and Xavier Tillman (99.8%) both could be in for productive games if the Grizzlies sit their starters. Clarke has averaged 12.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 0.7 BPG in only 20.7 MPG over his past three games, while Tillman has averaged 9.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 2.0 APG in 23.7 MPG over his past 3. If either/both are closer to 30-plus minutes, both will be on double-double watch. -- André Snellings
Best bet: Suns -7.0. With the Grizzlies looking likely to sit the majority of their starting five on Friday, this projects as a game the Suns should win convincingly. The Suns are as healthy as they've been in a long time and with Cameron Johnson set to return they'll likely want to bounce back with a smooth performance tonight. -- Snellings
Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic
7 p.m. Amway Center, Orlando, FL
Line: Raptors (-10)
Moneyline: Raptors (-550). Magic (+400)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 213.5 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (77.2%)
Key players ruled out: Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs
Notable: The Raptors have covered nine of their past 12 games (including six of their past seven on the road).
Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington D.C.
Line: Mavericks (-8.5)
Moneyline: Mavericks (-420), Wizards (+320)
Total: 220.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 229 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (65.5%)
Key players ruled out: Kyle Kuzma
Notable: After a tough 2-7 ATS stretch, the Wizards have covered three of their past four games.
Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 23.5 points + assists + rebounds. Luka Doncic gets a lot of attention, and deservedly so, but Brunson has had an excellent season. He has averaged 17.2 PPG, 3.0 APG, and 4.7 RPG over his past 10 games. The Mavericks face a Wizards team ranked 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions. -- Eric Moody
Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston, MA
Line: Celtics (-14.5)
Moneyline: Celtics (-1700), Pacers (+900)
Total: 224 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.5 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (92.4%)
Key players ruled out: Chris Duarte
Questionable: Malcolm Brogdon, Oshae Brissett, Goga Bitadze
Notable: The Pacers have failed to cover nine of their past 13 road games (including three straight).
Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Line: Kings (-1.5)
Moneyline: Kings (-125), Rockets (+105)
Total: 232 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.5 points
BPI Win%: Kings (50.3%)
Key players ruled out: De'Aaron Fox
Notable: The Kings have seen six of their past seven games go over the total and are 3-1-1 ATS in their past five.
Fantasy streamer: Davion Mitchell. Mitchell (59% available) once again shines as a streamer with De'Aaron Fox out. He has averaged 24 PPG, 8.4 APG and 1.0 SPG over the past five games. The Rockets have allowed opposing point guards to accumulate a high number of points and assists over the course of this season. -- Moody
LA Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Line: Bucks (-8.5)
Moneyline: Bucks (-440), Clippers (+340)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.5 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (72.8%)
Key players ruled out: none
Notable: Under tickets have cashed in six of Milwaukee's past nine games played on the second night of a back-to-back (played in Brooklyn last night).
Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Line: Pistons (-4)
Moneyline: Pistons (-190), Thunder (+160)
Total: 220 points
BPI Projected Total: 223 points
BPI Win%: Pistons (56.6%)
Key players ruled out: Tre Mann, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Notable: Over tickets have come through in 16 of Oklahoma City's past 20 games.
Fantasy Streamer: Kelly Olynyk. Jerami Grant is out for the season with a left calf injury and according to head coach Dwayne Casey, Marvin Bagley III is unlikely to play Friday with a hip flexor strain. Olynyk (85% available) has averaged 19.0 points, 9.4 rebounds and 6.0 assists per 40 minutes. -- Moody
Fantasy streamer: Killian Hayes. Hayes (61% available) has performed well over the past six games. He has averaged 11 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.7 APG, and 2.0 SPG in 30.3 MPG and is playing a Thunder team that allows the second most fantasy points per game to their opponents. -- Moody
Best bet: Pistons -4. The Pistons continue to dominate against the spread (16-2-2 in their last 20 games), and they're fresh off an outright win over the 76ers. The Thunder, meanwhile, continue to see more and more contributors sidelined down the stretch. While both squads are in the lottery, this game feels like a potential mismatch between two teams moving in opposite directions. -- Snellings
Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs
8:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Line: Spurs (-15)
Moneyline: Spurs (-1700), Blazers (+900)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.5 points
BPI Win%: Spurs (85.6%)
Key players ruled out: Justise Winslow, Josh Hart
Notable: The Spurs have covered four of five games as they continue to push toward the NBA's second season.
Best bet: Dejounte Murray over 42.5 points + assists + rebounds. Murray has averaged 21.2 PPG, 9.3 APG, and 8.4 RPG with a usage rate of 27% this season. He's averaged 27.3 PPG, 8.5 APG, and 9.3 RPG over the past four games. Murray has triple-double potential facing a Trail Blazers team that struggles to defend. Only the Thunder have allowed more APG than Portland this season. -- Moody
Best bet: Keldon Johnson over 30.5 points+ assists + rebounds. Johnson has averaged 21.5 PPG, 3.6 APG, and 7.0 RPG over the past eight games. The Trail Blazers rank 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions,. All season long, Portland has been dominated by small forwards. The position averages 23.7 PPG, 4.19 APG, and 8.34 RPG. There is no other team that allows a higher average per game in those statistical categories. -- Moody
Fantasy streamer: Drew Eubanks. Eubanks (68% available) has largely remained under the radar this season but has averaged 28.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.0 APG, and 1.4 SPG in 34.4 MPG over his past 11 games. The Spurs rank 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions -- Moody
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. ET, Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Line: Nuggets (-4)
Moneyline: Nuggets (-180), Timberwolves (+155)
Total: 236.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 231 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (60.8%)
Key players ruled out:
Notable: After covering four straight, the Timberwolves have failed to cover four of their past five games.
Best bet: Karl-Anthony Towns over 2.5 assists. The Timberwolves tend to use Towns as an offense hub when he faces Nikola Jokic. Towns has gone over 2.5 assists in each of his last eight matchups against the Nuggets (averaging 4.9 APG during that span), a streak that goes back to the 2018-19 season. -- Snellings
New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Line: Lakers (-1.5)
Moneyline: Lakers (-125), Pelicans (+105)
Total: 234 points
BPI Projected Total: 229 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (59%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: LeBron James, Anthony Davis
Notable: The Pelicans have seen six of their past seven games go under the total and they face a Lakers team that played last night.
Analytics Edge
BPI highest projected totals
1. Boston Celtics (124 points)
2. San Antonio Spurs (85.6%)
3. Denver Nuggets/Minnesota Timberwolves (116.9 points)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. Orlando Magic (102.5 points)
2. Portland Trail Blazers (106.7 points)
3. Memphis Grizzlies (107.2 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Boston Celtics (92.4%)
2. San Antonio Spurs (85.6%)
3. Toronto Raptors (77.2%)
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